Myanmar will head to the polls in less than two weeks, despite ongoing fighting in the civil war making free and fair polling impossible in some parts of the country.
International allies and pro-democracy advocates, who fear Australia’s northern neighbour is not ready for it, have warned the election won’t be inclusive and the vote will be heavily controlled by the military, which continues to suppress opposition.
The first part of a three-phased ballot takes place on December 28, but the country’s Union Election Commission has said 161 wards and 2,770 villages across Myanmar will not be able to take part.
According to Myanmar’s 2024 census, 145 of 330 townships have “security concerns” due to fighting in their areas. The military junta also claims it will hold the poll in a number of areas controlled or contested by rebel groups.
Last week the Australian government expressed concern about the poll, describing the situation as “short of what is needed for free, fair and inclusive elections”. That same day a military airstrike on a hospital in Rakhine State killed over 30 people.
The junta-organised elections come almost five years after the military overthrew the democratically elected National League For Democracy (NLD). The coup escalated violence in the country with an estimated 50,000 people killed since the takeover.
“The military regime is hoping to establish a veneer of legitimacy to their rule in the central part of the country,” said Dr Tamas Wells, research coordinator at University of Melbourne’s Myanmar Research Network.
“Most of the country is held by a variety of different armed groups opposed to the regime.”
For those who can participate in the election, Jeremy Laurence, a spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, believed it will be a “military-controlled ballot”.
The Myanmar military is putting lipstick on a fake pig. These elections are a complete sham.
Simon Billenness, director of Campaign for a New Myanmar
“The military is actively suppressing participation,” he told Central News. “Many major political parties are excluded and over 30,000 of the military’s political opponents, including members of the democratically elected government and political representatives, have been detained since 2021.”
Pro-democracy activists agree.
“The junta is holding these ‘elections’ in less than half the territory of Burma (Myanmar) that the military controls,” said Simon Billenness, director of Campaign for a New Myanmar.
“The military handpicked the candidates. It is a foregone conclusion that military-backed candidates will win.”
The junta aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), made up of former high-ranking military officers, is widely believed to dominate the polls. The party won an election in 2010 when the NLD did not participate and is fielding the most candidates nationally. The party is also competing uncontested in 28 constituencies. The outlawed NLD whose key leadership remains in prison will not be on the ballot. While other parties aligned with the idea of democracy have also been prevented from participating.
The USDP under the leadership of then President Thein Sein initiated a period of liberalisation in the 2010s, precipitating electoral landslides for the NLD.
“At that time the military were looking for some level of reform, and the general population were also looking for change. Now the regime is fighting for their survival against numerous revolutionary forces,” said Dr Wells.
For this reason democracy groups are calling for domestic and international rejection of the election.
“The Myanmar military is putting lipstick on a fake pig,” said Billenness. “These elections are a complete sham.
“The international community should reject these military controlled elections.”
Myanmar is more focused on relations with neighbouring countries, which prioritise regional stability over democratic reform.
Dr Cecile Medail, Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs
Meanwhile, the regime has continued to crackdown on any opposition.
Comedian Ohn Daing and two colleagues were arrested in October because they “failed to contribute their artistic expertise towards the success of the upcoming election” by using social media to criticise a film on state TV promoting the poll.
Dr Wells claimed the election is not for the people at all, but instead will “elevate the regime’s standing amongst some governments in the region, including China, and perhaps within ASEAN”.
Visiting fellow at ANU’s Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs Dr Cecile Medail, said: “Myanmar is more focused on relations with neighbouring countries, which prioritise regional stability over democratic reform. China, India, and many ASEAN states view the military as key to maintaining central authority.
“China, in particular, sees the elections as a way to engage the junta openly for its economic and security interests and to pressure ethnic armed groups toward ceasefires.”
Increasing the military’s legitimacy on the global stage has the potential to make the work of pro-democracy groups within and outside the country more difficult.
The National Unity Government (NUG), considered the NLD aligned government in exile, may be particularly affected.
“While still within five years from the 2020 elections, the NUG enjoyed electoral legitimacy,” said Dr Wells.
“For NUG leaders, the regime elections make it that little bit harder for them to continue claiming an ongoing mandate.”
Calling an election has already had a beneficial impact on the junta’s status internationally, with US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem last month citing its “plans for free and fair elections“ in ending the US’s temporary protected status for Myanmar nationals, enacted to safeguard people, including pro-democracy activists, from deportation following the coup.
Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said it fears the poll will create “greater instability and prevent a peaceful resolution to the ongoing crisis” while condemning “widespread human rights abuses and violations by the Myanmar military regime”.
Main Image of USDP during 2020 election campaign by Kantabon/Wikimedia.
