Party system at risk as neglected voters pivot to Pauline

The Labor and Liberal parties’ failure to listen and respond to their base is the main reason for One Nation’s surge in the polls and could threaten the country’s whole party system, according to an expert in polls and voter behaviour.

Pauline Hanson’s populist One Nation has siphoned support from a fractured Coalition and tapped into voter dissatisfaction with the Albanese government, but according to Dr Jill Sheppard, a political scientist at the Australian National University, the shift reflects deepening frustration with the major parties and could signal a broader realignment in Australia’s political landscape.

“We can’t tell yet whether this represents an actual political realignment,” Dr Sheppard said. “Voters are angry with the major parties for what they perceive as an unwillingness to talk about issues that matter to them right now.

“It’s tempting to speculate wildly about what’s driving Coalition voters to One Nation, but it’s really hard to say for sure. Coalition polling numbers have gone down at the same time that One Nation numbers have gone up, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the movement is entirely between those two parties.”

Recent polling from Redbridge for The Australian Financial Review and Newspoll for The Australian place One Nation’s primary vote as high as 28 per cent nationally, ahead of the Coalition and narrowly trailing Labor at 32 per cent, marking the strongest support in the party’s 29-year history. The figures suggest not only growing discontent with the government, but also a significant reshaping of the conservative vote.

Escalating cost-of-living pressures and economic uncertainty, alongside renewed debate over immigration and population growth, have intensified voter dissatisfaction, conditions from which One Nation has been able to broaden its appeal.

Australian democracy has stayed healthy and robust, but the state of the Australian party system is quite dire.

Dr Jill Sheppard

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has sharpened the rhetoric surrounding the party, describing One Nation as representing “dark forces”, further heightening political tensions.

ABC election analyst Antony Green has said the surge reflects “disenchantment with politics,” but noted it could carry real electoral consequences. He argued in a January blog post that if national support remained above 20 per cent, One Nation’s vote in some rural seats could exceed 35 per cent, putting it in contention to win seats outright or overtake Coalition candidates on preferences. In tight contests, conservative preference flows could determine whether the Coalition holds ground or loses seats.

“The debate about One Nation preferences starts to become irrelevant if the party is topping the poll,” he wrote. “We would be back to the 1998 and 2001 Queensland elections when Labor preferences were required to save some of the National Party’s safest seats.”

The surge is most significant in New South Wales, where polling suggests One Nation has overtaken both major parties in parts of the state. The looming by-election in the southern NSW seat of Farrer, long held by ousted opposition leader Sussan Ley, is shaping as a potential flashpoint, with both Liberal and National candidates expected to contest the seat alongside One Nation.

In South Australia, where Labor is widely tipped to retain government decisively on March 21, One Nation’s result will offer an early measure of the extent of conservative vote fragmentation.

Dr Sheppard said the surge also highlighted deeper strains within Australia’s party system.

“Australian democracy has stayed healthy and robust, but the state of the Australian party system is quite dire,” she said.

Sheppard noted at recent elections more than two-thirds of voters had preferred alternatives to the major parties, even as Labor and the Coalition remained the only viable options for forming government, a dynamic she described as “increasingly fragile”.

Main image of Pauline Hanson by jfish/Wikimedia.