Voters are increasingly throwing their support behind minor parties to express dissatisfaction with the two-party political system, according to a senior political analyst.
Movements in the UK and US to challenge the dominance of the major parties have gained support in reaction to declining living standards, with Nigel Farage’s Reform party last week beating the Labor government in opinion polls, former UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn recently announcing the creation of a new party and Elon Musk also proposing a third party in the US.
In Australia both the Greens and teals have grown and continue to be a thorn in the side of the Liberal party, while the strength of the National party has grown within the Coalition.
“Parties should be concerned about this. The ALP’s majority is strong in terms of seats, but the support they have is very weak when we look at first preferences,” said Dr Emily Foley, a research fellow at the University of Canberra and Flinders University.
“The interesting element [of the 2025 election] was that voters were strategic in their votes for Labor. Many seem to have voted for Labor in the HoR (House of Representatives) but picked an alternative in the Senate.
First preference vote share at federal elections. Source: The Australia Institute
“For now, the preferential majoritarian system we have in the lower house seems to keep the ALP in such a majority but it is thin support at best.”
The 2025 Australian federal election saw minor parties receive a record-breaking number of first preference votes, exceeding the tally of the Coalition.
“There is no question we are seeing a declining trust in political institutions and established political parties,” Foley said. “This doesn’t just show up in terms of voting for minor parties but also in the declining political membership of the major parties across the OECD.
“Parties should be concerned about this. The ALP’s majority is strong in terms of seats, but the support they have is very weak when we look at first preferences.”
Independent MPs Corbyn and Zarah Sultana announced in late July the launch of a new political party, currently dubbed ‘Your Party’, which has received a wave of support across the UK, with 700,000 mailing list signups within two weeks.
The party is yet to provide a formal platform on which it will run, but a joint statement from Corbyn and Sultana flagged issues of systemic injustice including wealth and power distribution and called for the nationalisation of public services, divestment from fossil fuels, and protection for political activism for Palestine.
There is no question we are seeing a declining trust in political institutions and established political parties.
“The system is rigged,” they said in a statement. “The system is rigged when 4.5 million children live in poverty in the sixth richest country in the world… when giant corporations make a fortune from rising bills… when this government says there is no money for the poor, but billions for war.
“We cannot accept these injustices, and neither should you.”
According to Foley, the path to success for Corbyn and Sultana is formidable, but practicable.
“As we have seen in Corbyn’s ability to win his seat as an independent, he is clearly skilled in community organising and while the Greens in the UK did increase their vote, it was not enough in a first past the post majoritarian electoral system to break through the major party duopoly,” she said.
“If they are serious about presenting a real alternative they will not only need to differentiate themselves from the Greens in the UK, but also this would require the sort of [grassroots] work Corbyn was doing in the 2024 election but in electorates all over the country. So it will be difficult but not entirely off the cards.”
The trend against two-party politics is not confined to the UK, with the world’s richest man Musk recently threatening to build a third party that would challenge the Democrat-Republican dominance.
“In terms of the third party momentum there are a range of institutional factors which differentiate the US with Australia and the UK,” said Foley. “[With] Elon Musks’ party there is very little chance of that taking off, partly due to competence – I don’t believe that Musk is a good political organiser nor do I think he might actually be serious about this – but also because of the presidential system combined with a first past the post electoral system.
“It makes minor parties or parties that are not reds or blue extremely difficult to break through.”
Main graphic by Chris Fithall/Flickr.
